Managing Partner at Struktur Management Partner
"The strikingly pessimistic assessment of the restructuring experts shows that a significant economic downturn is expected," says Georgiy Michailov.
As far as the chances of success of restructuring cases are concerned, it is becoming apparent that less and less is being returned to the market. Compared to the previous survey, the number of those who released more commitments from the "intensive care unit" into the market segment fell to 18 percent. This is the lowest level since the beginning of the surveys. Those who reported an increase in the number of insolvencies in the crisis cases they handled also rose by 10 percentage points to 17 percent. The ability to finance restructuring cases is also seen as much more difficult than in previous years. Banks are now more willing to accept write-downs on existing exposures. 56 percent of the restructuring experts surveyed were of this opinion. "This is bad news for companies, as financial institutions are now more willing to pull the rip cord," says Georgiy Michailov. However, if there is a rapid increase in new crises, the banks could find themselves in a dilemma: Only 13 percent of the bankers surveyed believe that there are enough well qualified restructuring consultants in the market to cope with an increasing number of cases.
When asked which exogenous factors the restructuring experts consider to be the most problematic for the companies they support, digitalisation ranks first. For 73 percent of respondents, this topic is important or very important. The dangers to global trade posed by protectionist tendencies are also regarded as high (63 percent). Weakening growth in the euro zone was ranked third.
The respondents consider these exogenous risks to be the most problematic for the companies they support: